4 Presentations

• 
  03:45 PM - 04:10 PM

  Integrating H2 into B-U energy models for decarbonizing C40 cities by 2050: An application of ETEM for the Montréal Metropolitan Community

  • Sara Ghaboulian Zare, presenter, Université de Montréal
  • Olivier Bahn, HEC Montréal
  • Mousseau Normand, Department of Physics, Courtois Institute, Chair in Transportation Transformatio, Université de Montréal
  • Martin Trépanier, Polytechnique Montréal, CIRRELT

  Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires transformative changes in urban energy systems, particularly in cities like those in the C40 network. Hydrogen (H₂) is emerging as a crucial energy carrier for decarbonizing sectors where electrification is less feasible, such as heavy transportation, high-temperature industrial processes, and space heating. This study integrates H₂ technologies into the Energy-Technology-Environment Model (ETEM), a bottom-up energy system optimization model, tailored to the Montréal Metropolitan Community. The model incorporates updated data on H₂ production, storage, distribution, and end-use technologies, and evaluates their role under multiple policy scenarios, including carbon caps and investment tax credits.
  We assess four scenarios ranging from business-as-usual to aggressive decarbonization with optimistic technology assumptions. Results show that hydrogen adoption grows significantly under stringent climate targets, particularly in freight transport and industrial heating. Electrolytic hydrogen becomes the dominant production pathway, driven by renewable electricity and supportive policies. The study highlights the importance of policy design, technology advancement, and detailed urban modeling in guiding C40 cities toward sustainable energy transitions.

• 
  04:10 PM - 04:35 PM

  Eastern vs. Western Canada: Optimizing Regional Decarbonization Strategies in a Global IAM

  • Maïka Lamoureux, presenter, GERAD/HEC
  • Olivier Bahn, HEC Montreal/GERAD
  • Annie Levasseur, École de technologie supérieur

  To address climate change, Canada has set ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, including a commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Energy system models play a key role in assessing the impacts of climate and energy policies under such constraints.

  This research presents recent developments in the global integrated assessment model AD-MERGE, which now includes a disaggregation of Canada into two regions: Western and Eastern Canada. This regional differentiation enables a more accurate representation of the country's diverse resource endowments, infrastructure, and energy pathways. The enhanced model provides new insights into how regional differences affect the feasibility and costs of decarbonization strategies, contributing to more targeted and effective policy design.

• 
  04:35 PM - 05:00 PM

  Exploring Adaptation and Mitigation in Climate Policy with AD-MERGE 2.0 integrated assessment model

  • Kamyar Amirmoeini, presenter, HEC Montreal
  • Olivier Bahn, HEC Montréal
  • Pierre-Olivier Pineau, HEC Montréal
  • Kelly de Bruin, The Economic and Social Research Institute

  Balancing mitigation and adaptation is essential to reduce climate risks and sustainable development. This study uses the AD-MERGE 2.0 integrated assessment model—which incorporates both proactive and reactive adaptation strategies in a nonlinear optimization framework—to evaluate how climate policy costs and benefits are distributed. The model optimizes social welfare by considering differences in adaptation expenses, mitigation efforts, and climate damages. The results of the study suggest that, while high-emission regions are responsible for driving climate change, disproportionate impacts will be experienced by specific regions, emphasizing the need for equitable and cost-effective strategies.

• 
  05:00 PM - 05:25 PM

  Choices and uncertainties in planning for net-zero power systems: shaping demand through energy efficiency to lower system costs

  • Florian Mitjana, HEC Montréal
  • Michel Denault, presenter, HEC Montréal
  • Pierre-Olivier Pineau, HEC Montréal

  Decarbonization requires the electrification of many sectors of the economy, leading to profound changes in the electricity sector and a growing demand for electricity in buildings, industry and transport. To support power system expansion decisions, a better projection of future demand profiles is needed, taking into account global warming and future temperature extremes, as well as a better understanding of the impact of energy efficiency measures on power system costs. In the building sector, what are the impacts of energy efficiency measures such as thermal insolation or heat pump penetration in space heating and cooling? In the transport sector, how do energy efficiency measures aimed at reducing the number of vehicles on the road, such as the development of public transport or freight transport by rail, influence the load profile and relieve the power system?

  The power system cost impacts of choosing such energy efficiency measures are assessed using two tools: a load profile generator to project load profiles in 2050, and a capacity expansion and dispatch model to estimate the optimal power system and its costs. Two scenarios simulating the complete electrification of all sectors in Québec are compared, one following the current paradigm and trends of the 2000s without energy efficiency policies, the other considering strong actions to reduce consumption in the building and transport sectors. Uncertainties in future extreme cold and warm years are explored through four global warming scenarios (+1,5 °C, 2 °C, 2,5 °C and 3 °C). Results highlight 50% cost reductions when an ambitious energy efficiency policy is adopted.