15h30 - 15h55
Evolution of the Canadian Oil Sector
This work proposes the use of a forecasting model with the Hubbert logistic function to explain the evolution of the Canadian oil sector in the following years. A detail study about the future evolution of the different type of sources at the provincial level is presented. Particular attention is given to the evolution of oil sands and offshore production. Of interest, it is the use of oil prices as the main driver for the model. The proposed methodology allows connecting oil prices, oil produced and infrastructure in the way of wells count. This result is of interest for the oil business, because wells count is a key component in planning and decision making. Wells count correlates with several variables used in oil operations such as capital and operational expenditures, rigs count, rig dayrates and vessels count among others. For the calibration process it was use detailed information about the evolution of all Eastern Canada offshore and Canadian oil sands projects, creating a bottom-up approach to build the Canadian oil database. After the calibration process, the model was tested under a particular scenario of oil prices. This scenario is based on the historical trend and the Hotelling rule. Our results show how oil production evolves and the years where peak oil production is reached for the different type of sources.
15h55 - 16h20
Electrification of the Canadian Road Transportation Sector: An Outlook with TIMES-Canada
The aim of this presentation is to evaluate and compare effects on the transportation sector of generic climate policies and specific policies promoting the deployment of clean vehicles. The
paper aims in particular at analyzing the impacts of GHG emission reduction targets on the deployment of EVs (and FCVs); and conversely at assessing the consequences of imposing EV
penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emission levels. In this presentation, we use TIMES-Canada, the Canadian version of the TIMES model. TIMES is a
bottom-up optimization model that represents with great techno-economic details the whole energy sector of a country or region, from primary to useful energy. It models in particular the
different vehicle types (ICE, EVs and FCVs) that could be used within the transport sector. Our study focuses on Canada, but our approach is applicable to any other country.
16h20 - 16h45
Inventory Control under the Emission Trading Scheme
Many facilities have mandatory targets regarding sustainability and green‐house‐gases reduction.
To achieve these objectives, managing inventories under the carbon‐trading scheme seems to be
helpful. Thus, inventory models must include new variables and constraints. Through a stochastic
inventory model formulation with a dynamic structure, we show the trade‐off between
sustainability and financial objectives.
16h45 - 17h10
Analyse du secteur de la biomasse au Canada: Approche TIMES-Canada
Dans une perspective d’analyse du secteur de la biomasse au Canada, on présentera les résultats de scénarios considérés sur l’horizon 2050 dans une approche du modèle TIMES pour le Canada.
La démarche de l’estimation du potentiel de la biomasse et du calibrage du modèle fera partie de cette présentation.